Probabilistic World

  • Home
  • About
  • Contact

Not All Zero Probabilities Are Created Equal

Posted on August 20, 2017 Written by The Cthaeh 6 Comments

Im_possible

What does a probability of zero mean? When people use it in everyday conversations, a statement like "the probability of something is zero" usually implies that that something isn't going to happen. Or that it is impossible to happen. Or that it will … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Probability Theory Tagged With: Probability density, Probability mass, Sample space

When Dependence Between Events Is Conditional

Posted on November 26, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 7 Comments

A spider building a web, outdoors.

In this post, I want to talk about conditional dependence and independence between events. This is an important concept in probability theory and a central concept for graphical models. In my two-part post on Bayesian belief networks, I introduced … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Bayes' Theorem Tagged With: Bayesian network, Causality, Conditional probability, Sample space

What Are Bayesian Belief Networks? (Part 2)

Posted on November 20, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 10 Comments

Droplets of different sizes (on a spider web) connected to each other - a metaphor for Bayesian belief networks

In the first part of this post, I gave the basic intuition behind Bayesian belief networks (or just Bayesian networks) — what they are, what they're used for, and how information is exchanged between their nodes. In this post, I'm going to show … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Bayes' Theorem Tagged With: Bayesian network, Causality, Conditional probability, Sample space

2016 US Presidential Election Predictions (November 7 Update)

Posted on November 7, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 3 Comments

A plot with the final win probabilities of Clinton and Trump, as a function of time

The moment of truth! The year-long battle for the White House is coming to its conclusion! Tomorrow, voters in all states will determine the next US president in one of the most unpredictable elections in US history. Many people will be celebrating … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Probability Theory Tagged With: Politics

What Are Bayesian Belief Networks? (Part 1)

Posted on November 3, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 22 Comments

Droplets of different sizes connected to each other - a metaphor for Bayesian belief networks

In my introductory Bayes' theorem post, I used a "rainy day" example to show how information about one event can change the probability of another. In particular, how seeing rainy weather patterns (like dark clouds) increases the probability that it … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Bayes' Theorem Tagged With: Bayesian network, Causality, Conditional probability

2016 US Presidential Election Predictions (October 10 Update)

Posted on October 10, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh Leave a Comment

The US map with states colored blue/red, depending on the candidate who is favorite to win the state. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump win probabilities are also displayed as text.. Additionally, the faces of the two candidates are at the foregroud

This is an update to the main post from September 20. Please click on the link for a detailed description of the election process and how we model it to make the predictions you see below. Click here to go back to the daily predictions … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: 2016 US Presidential Election Tagged With: Politics

  • « Previous Page
  • 1
  • …
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • Next Page »

Sign Up For The Probabilistic World Newsletter

Enter your email below to receive updates and be notified about new posts.

Follow Probabilistic World

  • Facebook
  • Twitter

Recent posts

  • Alternative Variance Formulas and Their Derivation
  • The Sum Operator: Everything You Need to Know
  • Natural Numbers and Arithmetic: Intuition
  • The Birthday Problem: Python Simulation
  • The Birthday Problem: Analytic Solution

Probabilistic World