What will happen if you grab a solid rock and throw it at your neighbor's window? The most common result is that the window will break. If your neighbor later asks if you know anything about the incident, you can confidently inform him that his … [Continue reading]

## Bayes’ Theorem: An Informal Derivation

If you're reading this post, I'll assume you are familiar with Bayes' theorem. If not, take a look at my introductory post on the topic. Here I'm going to explore the intuitive origins of the theorem. I'm sure that after reading this post you'll … [Continue reading]

## What Is a Sample Space?

The concept of a sample space is fundamental to probability theory. It is the set of all possibilities (or possible outcomes) of some uncertain process. For example, the sample space of the process of flipping a coin is a set with 2 elements. Each … [Continue reading]

## What Is Bayes’ Theorem? A Friendly Introduction

If you ever came across Bayes' theorem, chances are you know it's a mathematical theorem. This theorem has a central role in probability theory. It's most commonly associated with using evidence for updating rational beliefs in hypotheses. While … [Continue reading]

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