Why do people flip coins to resolve disputes? It usually happens when neither of two sides wants to compromise with the other about a particular decision. They choose the coin to be the unbiased agent that decides whose way things are going to … [Continue reading]

## An Intuitive Explanation of P-Values

If you ever took an introductory course in statistics or attempted to read a publication in a scientific journal, you know what p-values are. Оr at least you've seen them. Most of the time they appear in the "results" section of a paper, attached to … [Continue reading]

## The Inverse Problem and Bayes’ Theorem

What will happen if you grab a solid rock and throw it at your neighbor's window? The most common result is that the window will break. If your neighbor later asks if you know anything about the incident, you can confidently inform him that his … [Continue reading]

## Bayes’ Theorem: An Informal Derivation

If you're reading this post, I'll assume you are familiar with Bayes' theorem. If not, take a look at my introductory post on the topic. Here I'm going to explore the intuitive origins of the theorem. I'm sure that after reading this post you'll … [Continue reading]

## What Is a Sample Space?

The concept of a sample space is fundamental to probability theory. It is the set of all possibilities (or possible outcomes) of some uncertain process. For example, the sample space of the process of flipping a coin is a set with 2 elements. Each … [Continue reading]

## What Is Bayes’ Theorem? A Friendly Introduction

If you ever came across Bayes' theorem, chances are you know it's a mathematical theorem. This theorem has a central role in probability theory. It's most commonly associated with using evidence for updating rational beliefs in hypotheses. While … [Continue reading]

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