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Bayes’ Theorem: An Informal Derivation

Posted on February 28, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 12 Comments

A man, a dog, a cat, and a hamster staring outside from a high building's window with Bayes' theorem formula in the foreground

If you're reading this post, I'll assume you are familiar with Bayes' theorem. If not, take a look at my introductory post on the topic. Here I'm going to explore the intuitive origins of the theorem. I'm sure that after reading this post you'll … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Bayes' Theorem Tagged With: Coin flip, Conditional probability, Sample space

What Is a Sample Space?

Posted on February 25, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh Leave a Comment

A photograph of two white and three brown large standard dice.

The concept of a sample space is fundamental to probability theory. It is the set of all possibilities (or possible outcomes) of some uncertain process. For example, the sample space of the process of flipping a coin is a set with … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Fundamental Concepts, Probability Theory & Statistics Tagged With: Coin flip, Conditional probability, Probability axioms, Sample space, Set

What Is Bayes’ Theorem? A Friendly Introduction

Posted on February 22, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 9 Comments

Bayes' theorem hand-written on a notebook. Additionally, two dice are rolled on top of the notebook from a black plastic cup.

If you ever came across Bayes' theorem, chances are you know it's a mathematical theorem. This theorem has a central role in probability theory. It's most commonly associated with using evidence for updating rational beliefs in hypotheses. While … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Bayes' Theorem, Fundamental Concepts Tagged With: Conditional probability

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