Probabilistic World

  • Home
  • About
  • Contact

2016 US Presidential Election Predictions (October 7 Update)

Posted on October 7, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh Leave a Comment

A plot showing preferences as a function of time for Clinton, Trump, Johnson, and Stein

This is an update to the main post from two weeks ago. Please click on the link for a detailed description of the election process and how we model it to make the predictions you see below. You can click on the date above the map to check the … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: 2016 US Presidential Election Tagged With: Politics

Predicting the 2016 US Presidential Election

Posted on September 20, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 6 Comments

Trump, Johnson, Clinton, and Stein with an American flag in the background.

November 7 UPDATE: click here to view our final update post where we give our latest analyses just a day before the election! Click here to go to our daily predictions page. In the first 10 posts I mostly concentrated on theoretical topics. But the … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: 2016 US Presidential Election Tagged With: Politics

Frequentist and Bayesian Approaches in Statistics

Posted on June 16, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 52 Comments

Dennis Lindley vs. Ronald Fisher

What is statistics about? Well, imagine you obtained some data from a particular collection of things. It could be the heights of individuals within a group of people, the weights of cats in a clowder, the number of petals in … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Bayes' Theorem, Statistics Tagged With: Confidence interval, Null hypothesis, P-value, Parameter estimation

Combinatorics: An Intuitive Introduction

Posted on May 3, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 5 Comments

Rubik's cube

Combinatorics is a branch of mathematics with applications in fields like physics, economics, computer programming, and many others. In particular, probability theory is one of the fields that makes heavy use of combinatorics in a wide variety of … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Combinatorics Tagged With: Permutation, Set

Calculating Compound Event Probabilities

Posted on April 29, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 3 Comments

Venn diagram of three events

Probabilities can be thought of as measures of uncertainty in the occurrence of an event, the truth of a hypothesis, and so on. These measures are numbers between 0 and 1. Zero means the event is impossible to occur and 1 means the event is certain … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Probability Theory Tagged With: Conditional probability, Sample space, Set

Probability: What Is It, Really?

Posted on April 8, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 12 Comments

A ruler, a pen and a calculator on a notebook.

Throughout history, we have come up with better and more accurate ways to measure physical quantities like time, length, mass, and temperature. This has been crucial for our scientific and technological development. Each of these quantities has a … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Probability Theory Tagged With: Coin flip, History, Law of large numbers, Probability axioms, Sample space

  • « Previous Page
  • 1
  • …
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • Next Page »

Sign Up For The Probabilistic World Newsletter

Enter your email below to receive updates and be notified about new posts.

Follow Probabilistic World

  • Facebook
  • Twitter

Recent posts

  • Alternative Variance Formulas and Their Derivation
  • The Sum Operator: Everything You Need to Know
  • Natural Numbers and Arithmetic: Intuition
  • The Birthday Problem: Python Simulation
  • The Birthday Problem: Analytic Solution

Probabilistic World