If you’re reading this post, I’ll assume you are familiar with Bayes’ theorem. If not, take a look at my introductory post on the topic.

Here I’m going to explore the intuitive origins of the theorem. I’m sure that after reading this post you’ll have a good feeling for where the theorem comes from. I’m also sure you will find the simplicity of its mathematical derivation impressive. For that, some familiarity with sample spaces (which I discussed in this post) would come in handy.

So, what does Bayes’ theorem state again?