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Predicting The 2016 US Presidential Election

Posted on September 20, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 4 Comments

Trump, Johnson, Clinton, and Stein with an American flag in the background.

November 7 UPDATE: click here to view our final update post where we give our latest analyses just a day before the election! Click here to go to our daily predictions page. In the first 10 posts I mostly concentrated on theoretical topics. But … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: 2016 US Presidential Election Tagged With: elections, politics

Frequentist And Bayesian Approaches In Statistics

Posted on June 16, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 13 Comments

Dennis Lindley vs. Ronald Fisher

Imagine you obtained some data from a particular collection of things. It could be the heights of individuals within a group of people, the weights of cats in a clowder, the number of petals in a bouquet of flowers, and so on. Such collections are … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Bayes' Theorem, Frequentist Statistics, Probability Theory Tagged With: confidence interval, data prediction, inferential statistics, parameter estimation

An Intuitive Introduction To Combinatorics

Posted on May 3, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 2 Comments

Rubik's cube

Combinatorics is a branch of mathematics with applications in many fields, such as physics, economics, computer programming, and many others. In particular, probability theory is one of the fields that makes heavy use of combinatorics in a wide … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Probability Theory Tagged With: combination, combinatorics, permutation, set

Calculating Compound Event Probabilities

Posted on April 29, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 1 Comment

Venn diagram of three events

Probabilities can be thought of as measures of uncertainty in the occurrence of an event, the truth of a hypothesis, and so on. These measures are numbers between 0 and 1. 0 means the event is impossible to occur and 1 means the event is certain to … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Probability Theory Tagged With: compound event, joint probability, set

Probability: What Is It, Really?

Posted on April 8, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 4 Comments

A ruler, a pen and a calculator on a notebook.

Throughout history, we have come up with better and more accurate ways to measure physical quantities like time, length, mass, and temperature. This has been crucial for our scientific and technological development. Each of these quantities has a … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Probability Theory Tagged With: degree of belief, frequency, law of large numbers, logical probability, propensity

Calculating Coin Bias With Bayes’ Theorem

Posted on March 21, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 4 Comments

An ancient coin with an unusual shape and lopsidedness

Why do people flip coins to resolve disputes? It usually happens when neither of two sides wants to compromise with the other about a particular decision. They choose the coin to be the unbiased agent that decides whose way things are going to go. … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Bayes' Theorem Tagged With: coin flip, parameter, parameter estimation, probability distribution

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