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2016 US Presidential Election Predictions (October 10 Update)

Posted on October 10, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh Leave a Comment

The US map with states colored blue/red, depending on the candidate who is favorite to win the state. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump win probabilities are also displayed as text.. Additionally, the faces of the two candidates are at the foregroud

This is an update to the main post from September 20. Please click on the link for a detailed description of the election process and how we model it to make the predictions you see below. Click here to go back to the daily predictions page. You … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: 2016 US Presidential Election Tagged With: elections, politics

2016 US Presidential Election Predictions (October 7 Update)

Posted on October 7, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh Leave a Comment

A plot showing preferences as a function of time for Clinton, Trump, Johnson, and Stein

This is an update to the main post from two weeks ago. Please click on the link for a detailed description of the election process and how we model it to make the predictions you see below. You can click on the date above the map to check the … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: 2016 US Presidential Election Tagged With: elections, politics

Predicting The 2016 US Presidential Election

Posted on September 20, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 4 Comments

Trump, Johnson, Clinton, and Stein with an American flag in the background.

November 7 UPDATE: click here to view our final update post where we give our latest analyses just a day before the election! Click here to go to our daily predictions page. In the first 10 posts I mostly concentrated on theoretical topics. But … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: 2016 US Presidential Election Tagged With: elections, politics

Frequentist And Bayesian Approaches In Statistics

Posted on June 16, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 8 Comments

Dennis Lindley vs. Ronald Fisher

Imagine you obtained some data from a particular collection of things. It could be the heights of individuals within a group of people, the weights of cats in a clowder, the number of petals in a bouquet of flowers, and so on. Such collections are … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Bayes' Theorem, Frequentist Statistics, Probability Theory Tagged With: confidence interval, data prediction, inferential statistics, parameter estimation

An Intuitive Introduction To Combinatorics

Posted on May 3, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 2 Comments

Rubik's cube

Combinatorics is a branch of mathematics with applications in many fields, such as physics, economics, computer programming, and many others. In particular, probability theory is one of the fields that makes heavy use of combinatorics in a wide … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Probability Theory Tagged With: combination, combinatorics, permutation, set

Calculating Compound Event Probabilities

Posted on April 29, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh Leave a Comment

Venn diagram of three events

Probabilities can be thought of as measures of uncertainty in the occurrence of an event, the truth of a hypothesis, and so on. These measures are numbers between 0 and 1. 0 means the event is impossible to occur and 1 means the event is certain to … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Probability Theory Tagged With: compound event, joint probability, set

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Recent posts

  • Occam’s Razor: A Probabilistic View
  • Not All Zero Probabilities Are Created Equal
  • When Dependence Between Events Is Conditional
  • What Are Bayesian Belief Networks? (Part 2)
  • 2016 US Presidential Election Predictions (November 7 Update)

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