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Probability: What Is It, Really?

Posted on April 8, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 12 Comments

A ruler, a pen and a calculator on a notebook.Throughout history, we have come up with better and more accurate ways to measure physical quantities like time, length, mass, and temperature. This has been crucial for our scientific and technological development.

Each of these quantities has a precise definition and is informative about some aspect of the current state of the physical world. For example, the mass of an object can tell you how much work is necessary to lift it at a certain height. The outside air temperature determines the kind of clothes you would wear when you go out. And so on.

Probabilities are also quantities that measure something — they have a very precise and unambiguous mathematical definition. But still, they don’t relate to things in the physical world as straightforwardly and as intuitively as measures like mass and length.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Fundamental Concepts, Measures Tagged With: Coin flip, History, Law of large numbers, Probability axioms, Sample space

Intuitive Explanation of P-Values

Posted on March 14, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 13 Comments

"P-values are tricky to understand, p

If you ever took an introductory course in statistics or attempted to read a publication in a scientific journal, you know what p-values are. Оr at least you’ve seen them. Most of the time they appear in the “results” section of a paper, attached to claims that need verification. For example:

  • “Ratings of the target person’s ‘dating desirability’ showed the predicted effect of prior stimuli, […], p < 002.”

The stuff in the square brackets is usually other relevant statistics, such as the mean difference between experimental groups. If the p-value is below a certain threshold, the result is labeled “statistically significant” and otherwise it’s labeled “not significant”. But what does that mean? What is the result significant for? And for whom? What does all of that say about the credibility of the claim preceded by the p-value?

There are common misinterpretations of p-values and the related concept of “statistical significance”. In this post, I’m going to properly define both concepts and show the intuition behind their correct interpretation.

If you don’t have much experience with probabilities, I suggest you take a look at the introductory sections of my post about Bayes’ theorem, where I also introduce some basic probability theory concepts and notation.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Fundamental Concepts, Measures, Probability Theory & Statistics Tagged With: Null hypothesis, P-value

What Is a Sample Space?

Posted on February 25, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh Leave a Comment

A photograph of two white and three brown large standard dice.The concept of a sample space is fundamental to probability theory. It is the set of all possibilities (or possible outcomes) of some uncertain process.

For example, the sample space of the process of flipping a coin is a set with 2 elements. Each represents one of the two possible outcomes: “heads” and “tails”. The sample space of rolling a die is a set with 6 elements and each represents one of the six sides of the die. And so on. Other terms you may come across are event space and possibility space.

Before getting to the details of sample spaces, I first want to properly define the concept of probabilities. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Fundamental Concepts, Probability Theory & Statistics Tagged With: Coin flip, Conditional probability, Probability axioms, Sample space, Set

What Is Bayes’ Theorem? A Friendly Introduction

Posted on February 22, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 9 Comments

Bayes' theorem hand-written on a notebook. Additionally, two dice are rolled on top of the notebook from a black plastic cup.If you ever came across Bayes’ theorem, chances are you know it’s a mathematical theorem. This theorem has a central role in probability theory. It’s most commonly associated with using evidence for updating rational beliefs in hypotheses.

While this post isn’t about listing its real-world applications, I’m going to give the general gist for why it has such potential in the first place.

Alright, let’s get to it.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Bayes' Theorem, Fundamental Concepts Tagged With: Conditional probability

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