This is an update to the main post from September 20. Please click on the link for a detailed description of the election process and how we model it to make the predictions you see below. Click here to go back to the daily predictions page.
You can click on the date above the map to check the predictions for other dates. You can also click on different states on the map to see our state-specific predictions.
The following plot shows the evolution of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump’s general election win probabilities.
In the next two plots vertical lines mark the dates on which significant events occurred. By significant, I mean events related to a candidate that caused significant controversy and received significant attention by mainstream and social media. To me, these are the most interesting plots because they can give insight about voters’ actual reactions to the events which circulated around media.
Each event is shortly described after the plots.
- Sanders Endorses Clinton (July 12): After a long battle during the primaries (and two weeks before the Democratic National Convention), Bernie Sanders finally admitted defeat and endorsed Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee. Read more…
- Republican National Convention (July 18): Donald Trump was officially chosen as the Republican Nominee for the 2016 US presidential election. Read more…
- Democratic National Convention (July 25): Hillary Clinton was officially chosen as the Democratic Nominee for the 2016 US presidential election. Read more…
- Trump ‘Russian Hackers’ Comment (July 27): Donald Trump expressed hope that Russian hackers would be able to get access to Hillary Clinton’s deleted emails. This sparked controversy, as it was perceived as if he was openly inviting foreign hackers to try to get access to classified material. Watch video.
- Trump Khizr Khan Comments (July 30): Donald Trump’s response to Khazir Khan’s (the father of a US soldier who was killed in Iraq in 2004) speech at the DNC also sparked significant controversy. Trump remarked that the likely reason Khan’s wife did not speak during the Convention was the typical treatment of women in Muslim families. Watch video.
- Trump ‘2nd Amendment’ Comment (August 9): During a speech, Trump made remarks that were perceived as him inviting people to use violence towards Hillary Clinton (or somebody else) in case she becomes president and gets to choose Supreme Court judges who are unfriendly to the Second Amendment to the US Constitution. Watch video.
- Clinton ‘Alt Right’ Comment (August 25): Hillary Clinton talked about (and significantly popularized) the so-called Alt-right, during a speech in Reno, Nevada, which was perceived as divisive rhetoric. Watch video.
- Johnson ‘Aleppo’ Moment (September 8): During an interview, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson revealed that he did not know the city of Aleppo, one of the most affected areas by the Syrian civil war. This was perceived as unacceptable for a presidential candidate. Watch video.
- Clinton ‘Deplorables’ Comment (September 9): During another Hillary Clinton speech, she made remarks that were also perceived as divisive. She claimed that half of Donald Trump’s supporters are “deplorable” and “irredeemable” people. Watch video.
- Clinton’s Fainting (September 11): Along with a few other issues with Hillary Clinton’s health, her fainting after the September 11 commemoration ceremony raised even more concerns regarding her physical fitness to be president. Now these concerns have mostly faded away. Read more…
- First Debate (September 26): The first presidential debate was held in Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY. According to most opinion polls, Hillary Clinton won the debate convincingly. Watch video.
- Johnson ‘Favorite World Leader’ Moment (September 28): In an interview on MSNBC, Gary Johnson failed to name a favorite world leader which added to the perception of him being unprepared on foreign policy issues. Watch video.
- Trump’s Access Hollywood Controversy (October 7): The daily newspaper The Washington Post released a 2005 video of Donald Trump having a private conversation while being recorded without his knowledge. The video sparked big controversy, as Trump was perceived as talking in a very derogatory manner about women he interacts with. Read more…
We will add new events as the final month of this election cycle unfolds.
Finally, the image below shows our current estimates for the electoral vote distributions for Clinton and Trump.
We are going to continue to publish periodical updates. Stay tuned!